COVID-19 cases peak: India registered 3,561 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, taking the total to 52,952. With 89 deaths, the tally mounted to 1,783 on Thursday.
The country currently has 35,902 active cases, with All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) director Randeep Guleria stating that according to data released by experts and going by the current trend, the cases are likely to peak in June-July.
“While predictions vary from May to August and keep changing depending on parameters used according to modeling data and the way our cases are increasing currently, it is likely that our case peak can come in June and July. There are many variables to this and an exact prediction isn’t possible,” said Dr. Guleria.
With a vaccine still elusive, the government had been banking on the lockdown to break the chain of transmission of the virus.
On the first day of the lockdown on March 25, the number of Covid-19 cases in India was just over 600 and 13 casualties.
On Thursday – 43 days since the lockdown began – the number of Covid-19 cases in India has almost touched 53,000 with about 1,800 casualties on.
According to data from the Union Health Ministry on Thursday, 15,266 persons have been cured so far with 1,084 patients cured in the past 24 hours. However, the State Health Departments put the total number of cases at 54,299, of which 36,761 are active. The number of deaths rose to 1,832.
Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan on Thursday said that in comparison to other countries, India was in a better condition as the fatality rate was 3.3% and the recovery rate was 28.83%.
“Currently there are 4.8% patients in ICU, 1.1% on ventilators and 3.3% on oxygen support of the active cases. The testing capacity has increased in the country and it is now standing at 95,000 tests per day with 327 government laboratories and 118 private laboratories. Cumulatively 13,57,442 tests have been done so far for COVID-19,” he said.
Stressing that the surge in new cases could be linked to aggressive testing, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said: “As a percentage of tests, India’s total COVID positivity rate is still between 4 percent and 4.5 percent. Most cases are restricted to a few areas. Management must involve reducing numbers in these areas and preventing unaffected areas from getting the disease.”
Asked about the peak, Guleria, a top public health expert guiding India’s COVID-19 response, said: “The disease will peak at some point but we can’t say what its size would be. Based on projections by experts, the peak is likely somewhere between June and July, but this can change depending on our response over the next few weeks.”
Health Minister Harsh Vardhan, meanwhile, today asked the states to ensure all cases of severe pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses in unaffected districts were found and tested for COVID-19.
